The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts global economic growth of 2.6 percent for 2026, a slowdown driven by the Middle East conflict, rising energy costs and heightened trade tensions.

The report highlights that Brent crude prices have jumped from $70 to above $110 per barrel, inflating fuel and production costs for economies that rely on imports.

Trade tensions are reshaping supply chains, with China‑U.S. trade falling more than 20 percent since 2024 and tighter export controls limiting developing countries’ access to high‑value industries.

Asia is projected to deliver 59 percent of global growth, led by India (7.3 percent), China (4.5 percent) and Indonesia (5.2 percent), while other developing regions face a narrowing path to industrialisation due to restricted technology, finance and market access.

Africa’s challenge is underscored by its low capture of value in green supply chains, with the continent mining most of the world’s cobalt yet retaining less than one percent of the associated value.

Advanced economies have secured about 70 percent of announced greenfield investment in strategic sectors between 2020 and 2025, prompting UNCTAD to urge developing nations to strengthen domestic industries, diversify partners and deepen regional integration.