The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) estimates that flooding could displace almost 874,000 people in Somalia from October to December 2026, as intense rainfall and swelling rivers threaten communities already coping with drought.

IOM and the Danish Refugee Council say floods could account for 92 % of the expected displacement, but funding shortfalls are hampering preparation for the above‑normal rains linked to a strengthening El Niño.

The agency highlights Beletweyne and Gaalkacyo as the most vulnerable towns, with roughly 229,000 and 82,000 residents respectively facing possible evacuation.

Other hotspots include Dollow, where the Jubba River is nearing flood level, and Jowhar, where the Shabelle River is rising toward its banks, while heavy rain in Baidoa has already damaged homes and forced families to flee.

IOM says it has secured only about 14.4 % of the $16.62 million needed for flood preparedness, a fund intended to protect more than 517,000 people in flood‑prone communities.

Manuel Marques Pereira, IOM’s Somalia Chief of Mission, warned that hundreds of thousands could lose their homes within weeks and called for urgent international funding to enable early action and safe relocation.

The organization is working with Somali authorities to improve early‑warning systems, map safer evacuation routes and ready emergency assistance, but funding gaps limit the establishment of safe relocation sites and provision of shelter, water, sanitation and health services.