In its Kenya Economic Update released on 4 November 2026, the World Bank increased its projection for Kenya’s 2026 GDP growth to 4.6%, up from the 4.3% estimate issued in July.

The upward revision reflects stronger‑than‑expected performance in industry and services during the first half of the year, which offset a slowdown in agricultural output.

Industrial growth accelerated to 4.9% from 4.3%, driven by construction activity that rose 6.3% and manufacturing that improved to 3.3% thanks to higher food‑beverage production and vehicle assembly.

Agricultural growth slowed to 4.2% in the first half of 2026, down from 4.7% a year earlier, as below‑average short rains reduced crop yields.

The Bank projects growth to ease slightly to 4.4% in 2027, before picking up again to 4.8% in 2028.

It warns that the 2027 general election could generate uncertainty, potentially dampening investor confidence, delaying private investment and affecting tourism and trade.

The report also flags El Niño‑related irregular rainfall as a risk to agriculture, infrastructure and food prices, urging preparedness measures such as early‑warning systems and protection of critical utilities.

Kenya’s public debt remains high at 69.9% of GDP, with domestic borrowing accounting for 56.2% of total debt and interest payments consuming 5.8% of GDP, limiting fiscal space for development spending.

To address debt pressures and improve growth prospects, the World Bank recommends stricter fiscal rules, realistic budgeting, tighter expenditure controls and stronger governance in revenue collection, procurement and public investment.