The World Meteorological Organisation announced on 8 October that the El Niño climate pattern is strengthening and is expected to reach its peak in December 2026, potentially becoming one of the strongest recorded since 1950.

WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo said there is a near‑100 percent likelihood the phenomenon will persist through February 2027, extending its impacts for several months.

The agency indicated the intensifying El Niño will alter rainfall patterns, with some Kenyan regions likely to face heavier rains and flooding while others may experience drought conditions.

It also noted that the weather pattern is expected to push temperatures above normal in many parts of the world.

In Kenya, the Ministry of Interior has activated the National Contingency Plan, launching evacuation procedures, mapping access routes and coordinating emergency response among security agencies.

The Kenya Coast Guard Service, Kenya Defence Forces, National Police Service, Kenya Red Cross Society and National Youth Service have been tasked to support search‑and‑rescue operations if flooding worsens.

Earlier forecasts had suggested El Niño effects would become noticeable from late September, but as of early October rainfall patterns remain uneven, with some areas receiving little rain and others staying relatively dry.