Unusually high temperatures have spread across Nairobi and surrounding regions even as the October–November–December rainy season begins.

Weather expert Maithya wa Vilivū notes that seasonal climate models still project Nairobi’s average temperature to be 0.5 °C to 1.5 °C above normal through late 2026 and early 2027, with a median rise of about 1.1 °C.

The seven‑day outlook from the same expert shows daytime highs of 28 °C to 30 °C, and some neighbourhoods may exceed 30 °C.

El Niño typically brings above‑average rainfall to East Africa, but its interaction with other climate systems—such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden‑Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves and tropical cyclones—makes precise rain timing uncertain.

Because these additional factors influence moisture distribution, hot, sunny days can continue even during an active rainy season.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre also forecasts above‑average rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa from October through December, but stresses that spatial distribution will vary widely.

Kenya Meteorological Service Authority officials reassure the public that delayed rains in some locales do not invalidate the overall seasonal outlook, noting that El Niño strength alone cannot determine exact local totals.

The Kenya Meteorological Department’s short‑term forecast predicts Nairobi’s maximum temperature to reach 29 °C with lows around 12 °C between 20 and 26 October, while northern and eastern counties face highs above 35 °C.

Overall, the seasonal outlook combines above‑average rainfall with higher‑than‑average temperatures, meaning incoming rains may not fully alleviate persistent heat spells, especially where rainfall is delayed or uneven.