The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) cautions that as many as three million individuals may be forced to leave their homes in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda before the close of 2026 because of severe flooding.

Heavy rainfall during this period is expected to cause rivers to overflow, inundating homes and farmland and prompting families to seek safer locations.

UNHCR notes that the exact number of displaced persons will depend on the intensity of the rains and the resulting floods.

The agency’s report, released ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, highlights that climate change is compounding the challenges faced by people already displaced by conflict and persecution.

Globally, nearly 90 million displaced people live in countries highly exposed to climate threats such as floods, drought and extreme heat, according to UNHCR data.

UNHCR’s Assistant High Commissioner for Operations, Antón Leis García, stresses that refugees face a “double injustice” by fleeing conflicts they did not cause and then confronting a climate crisis they have contributed little to.

Over the past decade, weather‑related disasters have generated more than 255 million internal displacements worldwide, averaging about 70 000 people per day.

UNHCR urges governments and climate‑finance institutions to embed displaced populations in national climate plans and to direct funding to the most vulnerable communities.