NCBA Group’s latest projection lowers Kenya’s 2026 economic growth to 4.8 per cent, revising down from an earlier 5.1 per cent estimate.

The bank attributes the downgrade to a mix of external shocks – including Middle‑East tensions, the Russia‑Ukraine war, tighter monetary policy in major economies and sovereign bond market volatility – and domestic fiscal constraints.

The revised outlook was announced at the NCBA Economic Forum 2026 in Nairobi, where Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, World Bank Division Director Dr Qimiao Fan and President William Ruto’s adviser David Ndii were present.

NCBA Managing Director John Gachora warned that while the economy has shown resilience, its ability to absorb successive shocks is limited, underscoring the need to protect gains and accelerate growth.

Cabinet Secretary Mbadi projected a stronger 2027 performance, forecasting 5.1 per cent growth, stable inflation and a steady shilling, provided fiscal discipline and revenue mobilisation improve.

He also highlighted reforms aimed at expanding credit access, such as risk‑based pricing anchored on KESONIA, modernised payment systems and a revamped Credit Guarantee Scheme for SMEs.

Mbadi noted that despite a cut in the Central Bank Rate from 13 per cent to 8.75 per cent, average lending rates remain high at about 14.4 per cent, urging banks to pass on rate cuts to borrowers and boost lending to businesses, farmers and MSMEs.

David Ndii pointed to gains in agriculture and manufacturing, citing higher output of milk, sugar and coffee and a rise in vehicle registrations, while noting an investment pipeline of roughly $45.7 billion across key sectors.

The government is also moving forward with a proposed National Infrastructure Fund expected to mobilise $10 billion, which could support the projected investment pipeline.