The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) issued a statement on Sunday, Oct 11, urging Kenyans to stop assuming that El Niño automatically brings heavy rainfall, as the October‑December long‑rain season begins.

KMSA explained that El Niño refers to unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, but its strength does not directly dictate how much rain falls in Kenya; regional outcomes depend on Indian Ocean conditions and prevailing winds.

Principal Meteorologist Dr Joyce Kimutai reiterated that El Niño is not synonymous with rain, noting it can produce rain in some areas while causing drought in others.

The authority confirmed that the El Niño threshold was crossed during the April‑June period, linking the phenomenon to prolonged dry conditions in the North Rift and heightened crop‑failure risk there.

Despite the caution, KMSA’s October‑December outlook projects above‑average rainfall for most of Kenya, with the first rains expected between the second and fourth weeks of October.

The Agriculture Ministry warned that poor harvests are likely in Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Nakuru counties, where moisture deficits have already affected crops during critical growth stages.

KMSA noted that wetter conditions across Eastern Africa could increase the risk of flooding, water‑logging and landslides, highlighting the need for vigilance.

Since June, KMSA has run monthly webinars and vernacular‑language media engagements to explain the science of El Niño and manage public expectations ahead of the rains.

The authority acknowledged that its communication could improve but pledged to continue outreach through forums and media platforms, urging Kenyans to base planning on official data rather than assumptions.