The Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS) says the October‑December short‑rain season has started later than usual because tropical storm activity over the northern Indian Ocean disrupted the normal southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

KMS Director Hannah Kimani explained that low‑pressure systems forming over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily halted the ITCZ’s progression, leaving parts of Kenya unusually dry at a time when rains are typically expected.

Kimani added that tropical storms can either bring rain or suppress it, depending on their trajectory; in the current situation the storms have acted as a barrier rather than a source of precipitation.

Some regions have already recorded the start of their short‑rain period before the disruption took effect, but the overall pattern shows a delayed onset across much of the country.

President William Ruto has urged farmers to move away from reliance on rain‑fed agriculture and to adopt irrigation, citing the repeated postponement of El Niño rain forecasts and the risk that flooding could affect about 1.5 million people across all 47 counties.

KMS cautioned that the relationship between tropical storms and local rainfall is not straightforward, meaning that future forecasts will depend on the direction and intensity of any developing systems over the Indian Ocean.