The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) projects that inflation will increase in the coming three months as food, fuel and transport costs remain elevated, according to its latest Market Perceptions Survey.

The survey shows respondents expect inflationary pressures to stay high between September and November 2026, citing food supply constraints, rising energy costs and global economic shocks as key drivers.

September’s inflation rate rose to 6.8 percent, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and bringing the figure close to the upper bound of the government’s 2.5‑7.5 percent target range.

The upward trend follows a gradual climb from 6.4 percent in June, 6.5 percent in July and 6.6 percent in August, reflecting mounting pressure from food, transport and household energy costs.

Higher fuel and energy prices are expected to lift electricity bills, production expenses and distribution costs, making goods and services more expensive across the economy.

Food prices are projected to stay under pressure due to supply constraints, lower output after the long rains and distribution challenges, further tightening household budgets.

Global commodity price movements and geopolitical tensions could add to import costs, exposing both consumers and businesses to additional price hikes.

The latest inflation surge was largely driven by higher prices in food and non‑alcoholic beverages, transport, and housing‑related costs such as water, electricity, gas and other fuels, which together account for more than 57 percent of the consumer price basket.

In September, food prices rose 9.5 percent year‑on‑year, transport costs jumped 15.6 percent and housing‑related expenses increased 3.2 percent.

The CBK notes that improved agricultural production after the short rains, greater food storage capacity and stable exchange rates could help ease inflationary pressures, while monetary policy and government interventions are expected to contain price increases.

Nevertheless, the survey warns that global commodity price volatility, adverse weather and geopolitical uncertainty remain key risks that could derail efforts to keep inflation within the target range.