International oil markets showed sharp swings on Tuesday, with Brent crude slipping below $105 per barrel on Monday and climbing back above $106 per barrel later in the day, creating immediate uncertainty for Kenya’s fuel import costs.

The initial dip was linked to diplomatic optimism after the United States and Iran signalled progress in peace talks, a development that had previously lifted Brent from four‑year highs of around $113 per barrel.

Reports of a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island later on Tuesday reversed part of the price decline, underscoring how quickly military actions can push crude prices back up.

Kenya, which imports the bulk of its petroleum, is directly exposed to these swings; higher crude prices translate into larger import bills and heightened demand for foreign exchange.

Rising import costs are likely to be passed on through higher transport fares, distribution expenses and ultimately the price of goods and services for households and businesses.

Sustained elevated oil prices could also complicate Kenya’s efforts to contain inflation, as higher fuel costs tend to feed broader price pressures across the economy.