The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) issued an October outlook indicating above‑average rainfall across several parts of the country, marking the start of the short‑rains season.

Rainfall is expected to begin in Nairobi, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and other central and eastern counties during the second to third week of October.

Coastal areas such as Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and the Tana Delta are already receiving rain that started in September and are forecast to continue receiving above‑average amounts.

Additional counties—including Kisumu, Kakamega, Kisii, Bungoma, Nakuru, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Uasin Gishu and Turkana—are projected to get near‑average to above‑average rainfall.

KMSA cautioned that the intensified rains could trigger flash floods, riverine flooding, landslides and localized damage to infrastructure, especially on rural access roads.

In urban areas, overwhelmed drainage systems may cause traffic disruptions.

Farmers are advised that the rains could improve soil moisture, aid land preparation, support pasture regeneration and increase water availability for livestock, but excessive rain may cause water‑logging, crop diseases and transport challenges.

Health officials were warned that stagnant water may foster mosquito breeding, raising malaria risk, while flooding and poor drainage could elevate water‑borne disease threats.

Despite the wetter outlook, temperatures are expected to stay above average, with maximums reaching 39 °C in parts of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo.