The Kenya Meteorological Department announced that the October‑December short‑rain season has started, with most of the country expected to receive rain this week, though the onset will be staggered across regions.

Light to moderate showers are forecast for 45 counties, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Kisumu, Mombasa, Kilifi, Garissa, Turkana and Meru.

Isolated storms are likely in the north‑east, specifically Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River and Kilifi, and the department warned that these could trigger flash floods.

Acting Kenya Met head Edward Muriuki said the rain has already fallen in 24 counties, mainly in the west, Rift Valley and parts of the coast, listing counties such as Nandi, Kakamega, Siaya and Mombasa among others.

The forecast indicates that Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo will see rain in the first or second week of October, while central Kenya and Ukambani are expected in the second or third week, and Turkana and Samburu among the last to receive rain.

The coastal and northeastern zones, covering Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, are projected to receive some of the heaviest downpours, while parts of central and southeastern Kenya, including Nairobi and Kiambu, are forecast to get above‑average rainfall.

The department highlighted that the rains should replenish water sources, revive pastures and aid farmers in land preparation and planting, but warned that excessive rain could water‑log fields, spread crop diseases and impede market access.

Muriuki cautioned against attributing the season’s rain solely to El Niño, noting that other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole also influence the weather patterns.

Temperatures are projected to remain above average across most of Kenya this season, and a seven‑day marine outlook for the Kenyan coast and Western Indian Ocean predicts winds of 2 to 18 knots with wave heights of 0.2 to 1.6 metres, ranging from slight to moderate conditions.