Deputy Director of Eastern Region Meteorological Services Richard Muita told Spice FM that El Niño, while a global climate driver, does not automatically produce rainfall in every affected country.

The World Meteorological Organisation had indicated a near‑100 percent likelihood of El Niño, raising public expectations of heavier‑than‑normal rains across Kenya.

Muita clarified that rainfall depends on the interaction of El Niño with other climate drivers, particularly the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which influences East African precipitation patterns.

When El Niño coincides with favourable Indian Ocean temperatures, Kenya can experience substantial rainfall; however, unfavourable IOD conditions can suppress expected rains despite strong El Niño signals.

Muita cited the 2015 episode, when a strong El Niño paired with a weak Indian Ocean resulted in lower‑than‑expected rainfall, as a comparable scenario to the current situation.

While Nairobi has yet to see the anticipated rains, other regions such as Kisumu have already recorded significant precipitation, leading to property damage and flooding.

Kenya Met cautioned that it is premature to conclude whether the entire country will receive the rains, urging authorities and the public to maintain preparedness and monitor ongoing weather updates.