The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) reports that rainfall deficits have exceeded 50 percent of the average across much of Ethiopia, putting the Meher harvest – which supplies more than 85 percent of national crop production – at risk of falling below average.

June‑to‑September rains (kiremt and karan/karma) rank among the poorest on record, with drought conditions reported across nearly all kiremt‑receiving zones.

Delayed planting and damaged crop development have been noted especially in northern, central and eastern Ethiopia, where maize is wilting and sorghum is severely stunted.

In the Tekeze River basin and eastern Tigray, some farmers have had to re‑plant twice after initial crops failed, while low‑land areas of East and West Hararghe face similar setbacks.

Food‑security outlook

FEWS NET’s August 2026‑January 2027 Food Security Outlook projects Crisis‑level (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persisting through January 2027 in many drought‑affected cropping and pastoral zones, with some households likely to slip to Emergency (Phase 4).

An October harvest may temporarily improve food and income access in central and southern Ethiopia, but limited production is expected to keep northern and eastern areas in Crisis conditions.

Pastoral regions such as Afar report extremely poor pasture, reducing livestock health and milk supplies, while southern and southeastern pastoral zones face water scarcity that curtails livestock income.

Humanitarian response and forecasts

The UN World Food Programme warns that El Niño‑related climate shocks could worsen food insecurity across East and Southern Africa, and the FAO is seeking $50 million to support anticipatory drought action for 4.66 million people in 114 woredas.

The assistance will target vulnerable districts in Afar, Amhara, northern Somali and Tigray, as well as flood‑prone zones in southern Somali, South Ethiopia and South‑West Ethiopia.