The World Meteorological Organization confirmed in September 2026 that El Niño is firmly established and likely to continue until February 2027, while the IGAD Climate Prediction Centre warned of wetter‑than‑normal conditions across much of the Greater Horn of Africa for October‑December.

Farmers who receive early rainfall warnings often lack the cash, labour and time needed to clear drainage, repair storage facilities or secure collection agreements, leaving them vulnerable to income loss.

Traditional seed and fertilizer loans cover planting costs but do not address downstream risks such as drainage, drying, safe storage or transport, which can be more decisive for preserving income during heavy rains.

Lenders are urged to assess these broader needs alongside production costs and to design repayment schedules that recognise weather‑induced delays in harvesting or collection, which can temporarily halt cash flow without destroying farm viability.

Climate insurance should be integrated with credit and input packages, but farmers must first understand which perils are covered, payout triggers, exclusions and timing of payments, especially for excessive rainfall risks.

Beyond field‑level protection, post‑harvest services such as shared drying, storage and reliable buyer collection are essential; cooperatives can coordinate these assets while agritech platforms link farmers to lenders, insurers and buyers.

Accurate market information and transparent pricing are also critical, as fluctuating local currencies, global commodity prices and exchange‑rate movements can erode expected returns even after a successful harvest.

The author of the analysis, Abraham Nyabera, co‑founder of FarmFuzion, stresses that a forecast becomes economically valuable only when farmers have realistic access to the full suite of financial, insurance and logistical services needed to act on it.