DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook estimates that cooling will account for 13% of global electricity demand by 2035, up from its current share, as higher incomes, larger floor spaces and rising temperatures boost air‑conditioning uptake.

The analysis, released ahead of COP31, notes that electricity demand for cooling is set to rise by more than 60% over the next decade, outpacing growth in electric‑vehicle charging and AI data‑centre loads.

Globally, cooling electricity demand, currently about 2,800 TWh, is projected to increase by 80% by 2040, a faster rate than the 55% growth recorded in the previous 15 years.

The bulk of this growth is expected in emerging economies, with demand forecast to triple in the Indian Subcontinent and quadruple in Southeast Asia over the next 15 years, while North America sees only a modest 5% rise.

The Global Cooling Pledge, launched at COP28, aims to cut cooling‑related emissions by at least 68% from 2022 levels by 2050 and to raise the average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50% by 2030, but DNV forecasts only a 40% emissions reduction from electricity use for cooling by mid‑century.