The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) released its September 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey on 21 October, highlighting expected price increases for fresh milk, maize flour, wheat flour, sugar and garden peas.

Among 466 farmers, retailers and wholesalers surveyed, 74 % anticipated a sharp rise in fresh packeted milk prices, while expectations for white wheat flour rose to 48 % and fortified maize flour to 47 %.

The share of respondents expecting higher sifted maize flour prices jumped from 19 % in August to 40 % in September, and those foreseeing sugar price hikes grew from 15 % to 28 %.

Garden peas were also flagged for significant price pressure in October and the months that follow, according to the survey.

The CBK attributed these expectations to prolonged dry weather, higher fuel costs and rising transportation expenses, which affect both production and market movement of food.

A majority of respondents linked price dynamics to weather conditions (97 %), transport costs (92 %) and input prices (80 %).

Middlemen and brokers were cited by 62 % of participants as influencing retail prices, while 58 % pointed to disruptions in global supply chains.

The survey noted that the weak March‑May 2026 long‑rains season reduced pasture, limiting milk supply and adding upward pressure on milk prices.